In 1883, Henry Ford was tinkering with a neighbor’s watch and claimed later to realize that it could be manufactured for thirty cents. He never pursued his idea, however, concluding that “watches were not universal necessities, and therefore people would generally not buy them.”
Ford was a brilliant entrepreneur but missed “the watch thing.”
IBM was the second most profitable company in the world and probably the smartest technology company when it missed “the desktop thing.”
Microsoft completely whiffed on "the search thing, “the cloud thing," and, as Steve Ballmer once disclosed, the "phone thing."
Eric Schmidt admitted that he and Google had missed on “the friends thing.”
Really smart people and killer organizations miss enormous opportunities, even when those organizations have their eyes wide open and antenna fully extended.
Franklin Roosevelt called together the country's most prominent population experts in 1938 to peer into the future. Roosevelt's "brain trust" predicted that the U.S. would peak at 140 million people in 1944 and then slowly decline. In other words, they missed "the Baby Boom thing."
America's Founding Fathers--except maybe for Hamilton--completely missed "the Industrial Revolution thing." And "the political party thing." And "the urbanization thing."
Ford was a brilliant entrepreneur but missed “the watch thing.”
IBM was the second most profitable company in the world and probably the smartest technology company when it missed “the desktop thing.”
Microsoft completely whiffed on "the search thing, “the cloud thing," and, as Steve Ballmer once disclosed, the "phone thing."
Eric Schmidt admitted that he and Google had missed on “the friends thing.”
Really smart people and killer organizations miss enormous opportunities, even when those organizations have their eyes wide open and antenna fully extended.
America's Founding Fathers--except maybe for Hamilton--completely missed "the Industrial Revolution thing." And "the political party thing." And "the urbanization thing."
Smart people get distracted and show biases. Sometimes, money and a fast-follower strategy makes recovery possible, but often not.
Clayton Christensen warned in The Innovator's Dilemma that big trouble often starts from below, where we forget to pay attention. But from a 30-cent watch to the Industrial Revolution, it's just as easy to miss the profound changes that are inches from our nose.
It's what makes innovation so endlessly frustrating, but lots of fun when we occasionally get it right.
Clayton Christensen warned in The Innovator's Dilemma that big trouble often starts from below, where we forget to pay attention. But from a 30-cent watch to the Industrial Revolution, it's just as easy to miss the profound changes that are inches from our nose.
It's what makes innovation so endlessly frustrating, but lots of fun when we occasionally get it right.
