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| Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) He's smiling. |
Me: Are you smiling?
Malthus: I am. That’s as good as it gets for an eighteenth-century English cleric.[1] Anyway, I’m ahead. Winning big time.
Me: How so?
Malthus: You know.
Population. Food. Everyone talks about my famous quote: “The
power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to
produce subsistence for man.” A
beautiful quote. The best quote
ever. Believe me.
And for a long time I was feared. “Malthus,” they would say, “he was right.” Get to Broadway much? Ever see Urinetown,
when they all shout “Hail Malthus!”?
That felt good. Maybe my finest
moment. Everyone on stage is dying and they think of me.
Sometimes I hum the soundtrack to myself. Gets me through the last fifteen minutes of
morning prayer.
Anyway, 25 million people died of famine in the nineteenth
century. Sixty million in the
twentieth. Right in line with my
calculations.
And then along came Norman Borlaug and his Green Revolution.
And then along came Norman Borlaug and his Green Revolution.
Me: Missed that one, didn’t you?
Malthus: Yep.
Wheat. Rice. Growing like crazy. And it wasn’t just me. Paul Ehrlich was a big-time California professor
living in the middle of the Green Revolution when he wrote The Population Bomb in 1968. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” he wrote. “In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people
will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”[2]
Completely goofed.
Bad due diligence. Very bad. But he went down fighting—said the worst is
yet to come.
 |
| (see http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v2/n10/box/nrg1001-815a_BX1.html) |
Me: That must have made you feel good, though, to be wrong?
Malthus: Huh? Did you ever meet an eighteenth-century
English cleric who likes to be wrong? But
that’s all in the past.
I’m starting to get my mojo back.
I’m starting to get my mojo back.
Me: How so?
Malthus: Have you checked the situation lately? More than seven billion people on Earth, heading
for 9.7 billion in 2050. Still 793
million people hungry on a regular basis.
While ten percent of the world is eating 600 calorie bagels with extra
cream cheese and getting obese, millions of people are starving.
Me: That 793 million is down 209 million people in 15 years, against a much larger total
population.[3] We’ve got chronic hunger almost under 10% of
the population, and our total growth is slowing down. Best of all, we already produce enough food to feed everyone--2,900 calories per person per day against a UN recommendation of 2,250.
This is hard stuff, getting rid of extreme poverty and hunger. Building cold chains around the world. Re-educating populations. Heavy lifting. But we’re doing it.
This is hard stuff, getting rid of extreme poverty and hunger. Building cold chains around the world. Re-educating populations. Heavy lifting. But we’re doing it.
Malthus: You’re quoting percentages. Calories. I’m talking people.
Take everyone in the United States. Add them to all the people in the European Union. Now stop feeding them on a regular basis. That's your food model.
Take everyone in the United States. Add them to all the people in the European Union. Now stop feeding them on a regular basis. That's your food model.
Me: Still, it’s getting better every day. And you were wrong.
Malthus: Look, the Green Revolution set me back 50
years. But you got a little carried away
with all that synthetic fertilizer, didn’t you?
Running all that fossil fuel around in your air-conditioned tractors. Insecticide. Herbicide. Nitrous oxide. Methane.
CO2.
Cutting down rain forests in Brazil to grow soy beans to ship to pigs in China. That is one humdinger of a scheme you’ve got going there.
And then designing GMO crops that create super bugs and super weeds. Genius.
Cutting down rain forests in Brazil to grow soy beans to ship to pigs in China. That is one humdinger of a scheme you’ve got going there.
And then designing GMO crops that create super bugs and super weeds. Genius.
And then there’s meat.
Can I tell you about meat? Every
time someone around the world gets a little jingle in their pocket they trade
cereals for meat. The Livestock
Revolution.
You want numbers? It takes 1,557 square feet of land to produce 1,000 consumable calories of beef. I know a family of six that doesn’t have a house that big.
Thirty-six thousand calories of feed to produce a thousand calories of hamburger. Four hundred and thirty-four gallons of water for a thousand calorie steak.
You want numbers? It takes 1,557 square feet of land to produce 1,000 consumable calories of beef. I know a family of six that doesn’t have a house that big.
Thirty-six thousand calories of feed to produce a thousand calories of hamburger. Four hundred and thirty-four gallons of water for a thousand calorie steak.
And the methane? Ever
hung with the herd? More than 5.5X
the greenhouse gas emissions to get 1,000 calories of beef than 1,000 calories chicken.[4]
Apparently human beings never met a cow they didn’t
like.
 |
| (See: http://www.slideshare.net/cgiarclimate/livestock-mitigation-mario-herrero-nov-2012) |
Truth is, I may not have had the Green Revolution in my
calculations, but I didn’t have the Livestock Revolution, either.
And here’s the bottom line: China, India, and Indonesia—the
largest producers of rice in the world—saw yields improve seven percent between
2000 and 2010.[5] Meanwhile, their population was up 11.5
percent. Ta-da! That means you’re back in, dare I say, a Malthusian situation.
And now you’ve handed me climate change. The big kahuna.
What happens to farm yields around the world when extreme weather events like flood and drought are no longer extreme, but average? The world’s carbon emissions are around 50 gigatons (Gt) a year, and people tell me they’re going to rise for the next 15 years. Really important people. So you can take that to the bank. Emissions could be 60 Gt in 2030. And 1.5°C global warming is already locked and loaded. Experts think you have to cut emissions to 36 Gt to have a 50-50 chance of hitting 2°C.[6]
What happens to farm yields around the world when extreme weather events like flood and drought are no longer extreme, but average? The world’s carbon emissions are around 50 gigatons (Gt) a year, and people tell me they’re going to rise for the next 15 years. Really important people. So you can take that to the bank. Emissions could be 60 Gt in 2030. And 1.5°C global warming is already locked and loaded. Experts think you have to cut emissions to 36 Gt to have a 50-50 chance of hitting 2°C.[6]
All of which makes humankind delusional, I’m afraid. You’re just the same fuzzy-headed children of
the Enlightenment I had to instruct back in 1798.
Earth just passed the 400 PPM carbon threshold—forever.[7] There’s no going back. You’re looking at warming of 3°C,
4°C,
maybe 6°C by 2100.
You’re looking at life as you know it changing forever before this century is over.
You’re looking at life as you know it changing forever before this century is over.
It’s a Malthusian apocalypse. It’s so bad that there’s some around
suggesting it might be immoral to have children.[8] And that, my friend, is a Malthusian
solution. Just what I’ve been suggesting
all along.
 |
| Resting Face |
Me: Are you smirking?
Malthus: Sorry. Just
my resting face. Anyway, have you read
Naomi Klein? She’s a genius. She says it’s a battle between climate change
and capitalism, and capitalism is winning, hands down.[9]
The smart money says the Industrial Revolution, which made you all fat and happy for 200 years, is really the end of 6,000 years of civilization. Well played.
The smart money says the Industrial Revolution, which made you all fat and happy for 200 years, is really the end of 6,000 years of civilization. Well played.
Me: You seem pretty sure of yourself.
Malthus: Oh, I am. Look. A few years back, grizzlies started mating
with polar bears. GRIZZLIES MATING with POLAR BEARS! That wasn’t a
wake-up call?? The deplorables and their
leaders were busy picking apart percentage points in climate models while something called a Pizzly
was dining from their garbage cans.
 |
| Pizzly, sometimes called a Grolar. |
What a piece of work is man.
And you can quote me on that.
Me: Well, some mornings it seems a little bleak, I have to
admit.
Malthus: Ya think?
Hottest year on record, over and over.
No more graphs to argue about: just walk outside and put on your suntan
lotion. Hurricanes now hit New York City
sideways. We have hundred-year-floods every five
years. Tried to find the Aral Sea
lately?? It’s the Aral Desert.
And you have a candidate running for President who believes climate change is a Chinese plot. Meanwhile, someone forgot to tell the Chinese, who have 420 cities with insufficient water[10] and 4,400 people dying every day of air pollution.[11]
And you have a candidate running for President who believes climate change is a Chinese plot. Meanwhile, someone forgot to tell the Chinese, who have 420 cities with insufficient water[10] and 4,400 people dying every day of air pollution.[11]
Some plot.
And then you have the Silicon Valley crowd, the high priests
of techno-optimism. They think there’s
some kind of gigantic plane that’s going to fly around the Earth, scoop carbon
out of the air, and save humankind. They're launching drones and sensors to get one percent more yield on GMO cow-corn in the fields of Iowa. Meanwhile, millions of people go hungry a half world away because farmers don't have affordable seed, rocks for irrigation, steel sheds for harvest, transistor radios for weather reports, serviceable dirt roads, or supportive ecosystems.
Want to innovate? Try starting with the problems and not the technologies. It's hard to find more intellectual firepower solving the wrong problems with the wrong toys.
Want to innovate? Try starting with the problems and not the technologies. It's hard to find more intellectual firepower solving the wrong problems with the wrong toys.
Anyway, I’ve got the title of my next treatise: “Mankind:
The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.”
Me: Well, you were wrong once. Miracles do happen. And there are a lot of smart people working
hard at the big stuff, and at the little, everyday stuff as well. And we can cut down on food waste. Build green cities. Protect our forests. Change our diets. Invent new protein sources. Create new drought-resistant plants. Invest in renewable energy.
Malthus: Or frack some more? Here’s a beaut: The world’s largest carbon-capture plant is set to open
soon near Houston. It’s a coal-fired
power plant that filters out 90 percent of carbon and particulates. Then what happens? Can you guess? The CO2 distillate is pumped 82 miles away to
an oil field where it’s injected into depleted wells to produce more crude oil.[12]
You cannot make this stuff up.
Me: I know. But you can’t shake me. We’re going to be ok.
Malthus: Trust me this time.
I’ll give you plant genetics—go ahead and CRISPR away. I’ll give you green urbanization,
cheap Teslas, a smartphone for every smallholder farmer, and the Paris Climate
Agreement. I’ll give you Beyond Meat[13]--all
you can eat. I'll give you a drone in every pot. And you get all the unicorns from Y Combinator for the next five years, the best that Silicon Valley has to offer.
Me: Can I get food waste and the cold chain?
Malthus: Done.
Me: And I'm going to send you a copy of Food Foolish[14]. Maybe it'll improve your disposition. What do you get?
Me: Can I get food waste and the cold chain?
Malthus: Done.
Me: And I'm going to send you a copy of Food Foolish[14]. Maybe it'll improve your disposition. What do you get?
Malthus: I don't need much: the Koch Brothers, Paul Ryan and the Republican House,
and 2.5°C
by 2030. And just for good luck, I’ll
take Senator Inhofe.[15] That should be enough to ensure widespread misery and global famine.
Let’s talk again around 2020 and see who’s winning.
Let’s talk again around 2020 and see who’s winning.
Me: Check back then?
Malthus: Absolutely. But
I’m sitting pretty right now. The best
ever. Lots of people think I’m
right. Makes me want to really smile. Big smile.
Think I will.
Think I will.
|
| Big Smile |
[3]
Gaelle Gourmelon, “Chronic Hunger Falling, But
One in Nine People Still Affected,” December 4, 2014, Web October 6, 2016, http://blogs.worldwatch.org/chronic-hunger-falling-but-one-in-nine-people-still-affected/.
[4] Robert Kunzig, “Carnivore’s Dilemma,” National Geographic, 2014, Web October
1, 2016, http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/meat/.
[5] Stephen P. Long et al., “Meeting the Global Food
Demand of the Future by Engineering Crop Photosynthesis and Yield Potential,” Cell, Volume 161, Issue 1, March 26,
2016, Web October 6, 2016, http://www.cell.com/cell/references/S0092-8674(15)00306-2,
56-66.
[6] Robin McKie, “World Will Pass Crucial 2C Global
Warming Limit, Experts Warn,” The
Guardian, October 10, 2015, Web October 6, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/10/climate-2c-global-warming-target-fail.
[7] Brian Kahn, “Earth’s CO2 Passes the 400 PPM
Threshold—Maybe Permanently,” Scientific
American, September 27, 2016, Web October 6, 2016, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/.
[8] Dave Bry, “Does Climate Change Make It Immoral to Have
Kids,” The Guardian, April 2, 2016,
Web October 6, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/02/does-climate-change-make-it-immoral-to-have-kids.
[9] Sarah Jaffee, “Naomi Klein on Cause of Climate Crisis:
‘Capitalism Is Stupid,’" Truthout,
September 24, 2014, Web October 6, 2016, http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26369-naomi-klein-on-cause-of-climate-crisis-capitalism-is-stupid.
[10] Urban China:
Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable, and Urbanization, The World
Bank Group, Washington, D.C., 2014, Web September 22, 2016, https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/EAP/China/WEB-Urban-China.pdf,
26.
[11] Helen Roxburgh, “Inside Shanghai Tower: China’s
Tallest Skyscraper Claims to be World’s Greenest,” The Guardian, August 23, 2016, Web September 16, 2016,
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/23/inside-shanghai-tower-china-tallest-building-green-skyscrapers.
[12] Umair Irfan, “World’s Largest Carbon-Capture Plant to
Open Soon,” ClimateWire, October 4,
2016, Web October 6, 2016, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-s-largest-carbon-capture-plant-to-open-soon/.
[13] http://beyondmeat.com/.
[14] http://foodfoolishbook.naturalleader.com/.
[15] Kate Sheppard, “Jim Inhofe Brings a Snowball to the
Senate Floor to Prove Climate Change is a ‘Hoax,’” February 27, 2015, Web
October 6, 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/26/jim-inhofe-climate-snow_n_6763868.html.